The Railbelt is Behind on Wind and Solar Deployment
The cost of utility-scale solar has dropped 76% since 2010 and wind costs have dropped 45%. The improved cost-effectiveness of these technologies has spurred a rapid increase in the electricity generated from these technologies in the US. But, how have we done in the Alaskan Railbelt as far as adoption of wind and solar?
The graph below shows the percent of utility-scale electric energy generated from solar and wind both for the US as a whole and for the Railbelt.
The rapid rise in solar and wind adoption in the Lower-49 is readily apparent in the graph. For the US, 14% of total utility-scale electricity production came from solar and wind in 2022. However, the story in the Railbelt is substantially less dramatic. In 2022, 2.2% of electricity generation in the Railbelt came from solar and wind, about six times less than the US.
The vast majority of the Railbelt wind/solar generation is contributed by the Eva Creek 25 MW wind plant and the 18 MW Fire Island wind plant, both of which began production near 2013. The Eva Creek plant has suffered capacity factor declines in recent years, explaining the gradual decrease in the Railbelt wind/solar fraction.
Although wind/solar production is far behind lower-48 levels, a number of Railbelt projects are currently under consideration. The graph below looks into the near future to see how wind and solar deployment might progress in both the Railbelt and the US.
Starting with the US figures, the EIA projects wind/solar fractions of 16% and 18% for 2023 and 2024 respectively. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that fraction will increase to 40 - 62% by 2030. (The graph above targets 47% for 2030).
As for the Railbelt line on the graph, the projection assumes that most all of the currently contemplated projects will be built on a fairly aggressive time frame. Included are the 120 MW Little Mount Susitna Wind project and the 120 MW Great Lands Solar project, as described in the Black & Veatch Chugach Gas Supply Option and Market Assessment.
Also included is the Fairbanks-area Shovel Creek Wind project, assumed here to be built at the 150 MW capacity level. Matanuska Electric's recently completed 6 MW Houston Solar project is included, as well as a 30 MW solar project being considered by Homer Electric. All of these Railbelt wind/solar projects are being proposed by Independent Power Producers, hoping to sell power from projects to the above-mentioned utilities or sell the projects outright to the utilities.
Completion of these projects would be a very large step forward for wind and solar deployment in the Railbelt. While these projects will bring our wind/solar fraction in line with the US, continued wind and solar progress in the Lower-48 will quickly put us behind again.
Stay tuned for future posts on the economic benefits and costs of these wind and solar projects.
Finally, the table below shows the energy contributions of each of the Railbelt projects discussed above.
Edits:
Jan 25, 2024: Changed the estimated size of the Shovel Creek Wind project to 150 MW, based on conversations with the IPP developer, Alaska Renewables. Increased the estimated capacity factor of that project to 40%.